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Short answer: in Little Rock and North Little Rock, yes — the national fall buying window is showing up here, and the local numbers back it. In Sherwood, it's starting to. In Maumelle, it isn't happening at all.
Realtor.com just named September 27 through October 3 the best week to buy a home in 2026. That's a national finding, built from national data. My job is to tell you whether it's true where you're actually buying.
I'm Zach Dunivan, a Realtor here in Central Arkansas. I pulled the August numbers for four submarkets, and the answer depends a lot on which one you're looking at.
Central Arkansas data from RPR, August 2026.
What Realtor.com actually found
Their 2026 Best Time to Buy report scored every week of the year on listing prices, inventory, new listings, market pace, price reductions, and buyer demand. The week of September 27 came out on top.
During that week, buyers historically see up to 31.9% more active listings than at the start of the year, listing prices about 3.5% below their seasonal peak, and competition — measured by listing views per property — about 30.1% below its annual high. Homes also spend roughly 13 days longer on market than at the year's fastest pace.
Two details in that report matter more than the headline, and almost nobody is repeating them.
First, mortgage rates were deliberately left out. Realtor.com excludes rates from the scoring because they don't follow a reliable seasonal pattern. So "best week to buy" means best week for inventory, price, and competition — not best week for financing. That's a real distinction when the 30-year is sitting near 7%.
Second, the national best week only lines up with the local best week in 14 of the 50 largest metros. In the other 36, the best local window falls somewhere else on the calendar.
That second point is the whole reason this article exists. A national seasonal pattern is an average. Your market might follow it, lag it, or run the opposite direction.
So let's check.
Is it true here? The four-submarket answer
Market | Months of inventory | YoY change | Days to sell | Days sitting | Sold-to-list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Little Rock | 4.69 | +24.4% | 15 | 60 | 97.6% |
Little Rock | 4.18 | +6.4% | 19 | 60 | 97.2% |
Sherwood | 3.49 | +24.2% | 13 | 45 | 99.7% |
Maumelle | 2.26 | −33.9% | 18 | 49 | 97.6% |
Using the common rule of thumb — under four months is seller territory, four to six is balanced, above six favors buyers — here's how that sorts out.
North Little Rock and Little Rock: the fall window is real
These two are where the national pattern shows up most clearly.
North Little Rock has the biggest shift in the metro. Inventory is up 24.4% from a year ago, months of supply jumped 16.4% in a single month, and it's now sitting at 4.69 months — solidly in balanced territory. There are 300 active listings, and the ones still on the market have been sitting a median of 60 days.
Little Rock crossed the line too, at 4.18 months, with 857 active listings and the same 60-day median for homes still sitting.
For a buyer in either city, that combination is exactly what Realtor.com describes: more choices, less urgency, and a meaningful pool of sellers who have been waiting longer than they expected.
But here's the part that keeps this honest. Homes that actually sold in North Little Rock went under contract in about 15 days. In Little Rock, 19 days. And sellers still got 97 to 98 cents on the dollar.
So the leverage isn't everywhere. It's concentrated in the homes that have been sitting — and there are a lot more of those than there were in the spring.
Sherwood: loosening fast, but not there yet
Sherwood is the one to watch.
Inventory is up 24.2% year over year and jumped 24.6% in a single month. That's the fastest one-month loosening of the four. But at 3.49 months, it's still technically a seller's market.
And the homes that sell are still moving fast — about 13 days to go under contract, with sellers getting 99.7% of asking price in August. That's nearly full price.
If you're buying in Sherwood this fall, you'll see more options than you would have in the spring. You probably won't see much negotiating room on a well-priced home. Come in prepared, not expecting a discount.
Maumelle: the national pattern isn't happening
This is the one where following national advice would lead you wrong.
Maumelle's inventory went the opposite direction — down 33.9% from a year ago, to 2.26 months of supply. That's a tight seller's market by any measure. There are only 86 active listings in the entire city.
And look at how fast things are going pending: the median new pending listing in August went under contract in about 2 days.
If you read a national headline telling you fall is the time to negotiate, and then walked into Maumelle expecting a discount, you would lose houses. Maumelle isn't in a fall window. It's in a supply shortage.
"But aren't rates too high right now?"
That's the obvious objection, so let me handle it directly and then set it aside.
Yes, financing is expensive. Conventional 30-year quotes near 7% are real, and as I covered in last week's piece on the Fed decision, the Fed's own median projection doesn't show the policy rate declining until 2028.
But that's exactly why the fall window matters. Realtor.com's senior economist framed it this way: when financing offers little relief, buyers have to make up ground somewhere else. Price, inventory, and negotiating room are the places you can still make it up.
And if you're a first-time buyer, check ADFA StartSmart before you assume you're stuck at 7%. That program was quoting 5.75% on September 16, the day of the Fed decision.
Why fewer buyers is actually your advantage
This is counterintuitive, so it's worth spelling out.
When rates rise, some buyers drop out entirely. The ones who remain are facing less competition than they would in a hotter market. A house that might have drawn four offers in April may draw one serious one in October.
That changes what you can ask for. Inspection periods get longer. Repair requests get taken seriously. Sellers start considering closing costs and rate buydowns rather than just countering on price.
It also changes pace. Buying in a competitive spring market often means deciding within hours. In a balanced fall market, you frequently get a day or two to think — and a day or two can be the difference between a good decision and an expensive one.
Where the leverage actually is
The homes that give you negotiating room this fall are the ones that have been sitting past their submarket's normal selling window.
In Little Rock and North Little Rock, homes that sell go under contract in 15 to 19 days, but the median active listing has been sitting 60. That gap is your opportunity. A seller at day 60 is having a very different conversation with their agent than a seller at day 8.
So before you write an offer, ask for two things on every property: days on market and price history. That's free, it takes thirty seconds, and it tells you exactly where you have room.
And when you find a seller with room, think beyond the price. Money toward closing costs or a rate buydown often does more for your monthly budget than an equivalent price reduction. Nationally, sellers gave concessions in a record share of August sales, so asking is increasingly normal.
Who should buy this fall
Buyers who can comfortably afford today's payment. If the numbers work at current rates, the fall window gives you more choices and more negotiating room than you've had in several years.
Buyers who plan to stay a while. If you expect to be in the home five years or more, the timing of your purchase matters less than finding the right house at a fair price — and fall gives you more of both in most of this metro.
First-time buyers who qualify for assistance. Lower competition plus a below-market StartSmart rate is about as good a combination as this market offers right now.
Who should wait
Anyone who would be stretched by the payment. No seasonal window justifies a payment that leaves you anxious every month. If the numbers don't work, waiting is the right call.
Anyone counting on a refinance to make it affordable. Future rates aren't guaranteed, and the Fed just signaled they aren't coming down soon.
Anyone who needs a very specific house in Maumelle. That market isn't giving buyers leverage right now, and fall won't change that.
The honest bottom line
Realtor.com's fall buying window is real — but it's a national average, and it only matches local timing in about a quarter of major metros.
Here, it holds in Little Rock and North Little Rock, where inventory rose and both cities crossed into balanced-market territory. It's starting to show up in Sherwood. It isn't happening in Maumelle at all.
So the right answer isn't "fall is the best time to buy." It's that fall is a good time to buy in most of Central Arkansas — for buyers who can afford today's payment, who target homes that have been sitting, and who negotiate beyond price.
Want to know what your specific area is doing right now? Call or text me at 501-988-3758 or email [email protected]. Tell me where you're looking and your price range, and I'll pull what's been sitting and what's actually selling. No pressure, no pitch.
Buying your first home? I run a free first-time home buyer class that covers financing, ADFA programs, and the whole process.
Zach Dunivan is a licensed Arkansas Realtor® with Coldwell Banker RPM Group and the founder of Dunivan Real Estate, serving Little Rock, North Little Rock, Maumelle, Conway, Benton, Bryant, Sherwood, and Central Arkansas. This article is informational only and is not financial or lending advice. Market conditions change monthly.
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